Editor’s Note: A devastating cyclone has struck Burma. Allegedly, 22,000 people have died with another 40,000 missing. International aid efforts immediately hit roadblocks because the military junta dislikes busybody foreigners in the country. How did so many people die in a storm that neighboring nations hardly noticed? As usual with Burma, suspicions, mistrust and resentments prevail.

Guest Editorial by a Burma-Watcher

THAILAND – “Did you manage to avoid the storm?” asked an overseas friend who emailed me after hearing news reports about the devastation in Burma.

That’s the most amazing thing. Although Burma took a pounding, here in neighboring Thailand, we had no hint of a serious storm. The weather in my home town was overcast, a bit rainy and pleasantly cool. That’s it.

The most hard-hit part of Burma is near Thailand so it’s strange that we hardly felt a thing. Maybe the gods had a precision guidance system on the cyclone, one aimed directly at the Burmese junta.

As for the death toll, I’m suspicious about inflated numbers intended to attract plenty of aid money into the junta’s waiting pockets. Such shenanigans have happened before.

Probably the numbers being tossed around (predictions of 50,000 or more dead) are plucked from thin air, and no one really knows. But independent observers confirm the big picture of many deaths and serious destruction.

Evidently, many people died in the coastal villages when a huge tidal wave accompanied the storm. So this tragedy had shades of the earlier tsunami disaster.

Strong winds alone probably couldn’t cause so many deaths. There’s talk of bodies floating in the rivers so probably (as after the tsunami) there’ll never be reliable numbers. The big question now may be how many more people will die before aid-workers can provide food and clean water.

Could this storm be a fuse to blast away the brutal logjam in Burmese politics? I notice some civilian comments emerging about the Burmese military being proficient at beating up monks and repressing people, but much less energetic in responding to this national emergency.

But expecting serious political change may be too optimistic. Presumably, China will be glad to prop up the Burmese junta to avoid any outbreaks of democracy.

Meanwhile, Laura Bush, the U.S. president’s wife, takes in interest in Burma and has scolded the Burmese junta for reacting slowly in the storm’s aftermath. Has she totally forgotten about New Orleans and Hurricane Katrina?

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