Guest Comments by the Burma Partnership Secretariat
THAILAND – According to reports, the latest military resignations in Burma have seen eight top officials resign, maybe including senior general Than Shwe and his deputy, general Maung Aye. If the reports prove accurate, then Than Shwe would remain as the head of state until after the 2011 financial year before handing power to an incoming “elected” government.
Regarded as premeditated, the reshuffling would allow former generals to take leading posts in the yet-to-be-elected administration. Former general Shwe Mann, the third-in-command, is widely tipped to become the president, a role reserved for “civilians”.
Notably, the 2008 constitution stuplated that the president and vice-president "shall be well acquainted with the affairs of the union, such as... military". Therefore, candidates need intimate knowledge of, or experience in, the military, leaving most civilians ineligible.
Parallels can be drawn to former dictator
Ne Win's army resignation in 1974 before declaring himself president. But the moves also bring to mind the classic children's fable, The Emperor's New Clothes. In this real-life version, Than Shwe may believe he has pulled the wool over everyone's eyes with his “new civilian clothes”. But his real military colors remain clearly visible.
The military shakeup, just months ahead of “elections”, heightens a popular belief that the junta is trying to consolidate power under a civilian guise. The constitution grants the military full independence, impunity and the means to reassert full power in any “state of emergency”. Reshuffling allows the regime also to keep control over the supposedly “civilian” government.
By shifting into civilian garb, military officials try to gain more domestic and international legitimacy. The regime knows that people inside and outside Burma will balk at the appointment of military officials to the presidency and other leading governmental roles.
The regime expects some governments to see this civilian guise as a chance to engage with Burma without attracting criticism for supporting an oppressive military dictatorship. The international community must defy the regime's maneuvers. A change of clothes is not a change of heart.
ARCHIVES
|
Than Shwe: obvious ploy.
Burma's military plans to consolidate
power under a civilian guise.
|
